{"id":12676,"date":"2026-03-29T21:38:49","date_gmt":"2026-03-30T01:38:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/parmaks.com\/Resources\/long-odds-and-unseen-differences\/"},"modified":"2026-03-29T21:38:49","modified_gmt":"2026-03-30T01:38:49","slug":"long-odds-and-unseen-differences","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/parmaks.com\/Resources\/long-odds-and-unseen-differences\/","title":{"rendered":"Long odds and unseen differences"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Profit<\/a>
\n<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cThe odds of winning the lottery are the same whether you buy a ticket or not.\u201d<\/p>\n

This seems nonsensical at first. Obviously, there are lottery winners. Therefore, the odds aren\u2019t the same.<\/p>\n

Except we\u2019re not mathematicians doing a math problem (at least most of us). Odds are how we navigate the world. When they\u2019re sufficiently low, the useful approach is to assume that they\u2019re zero. Sort of how we deal with invisible signals: There\u2019s sound in a very quiet room, but we can\u2019t hear it. There\u2019s light in a very dark room, but we can\u2019t see it. These never go to zero, but we treat them as if they do.<\/p>\n

The story<\/em> of playing very long odds might give you hope or solace or energize you. That\u2019s what they make movies about, after all. But in practice, you\u2019re buying that story, not a useful chance of winning something.<\/p>\n

Paul McGowan points out that the difference between a $500 stereo and a $5000 stereo is enormous. But the difference between the more expensive stereo\u2019s sound and one costing $50,000 is vanishingly small\u2026 Soon it becomes a story, not a sound.<\/p>\n

Buy the best story you can afford, with all the benefits it comes with. But don\u2019t be confused by the odds or tiny differences. They\u2019re probably zero.<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\t\tMarch 29, 2026<\/span>\n\t\t\t<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n