{"id":13165,"date":"2026-06-12T23:29:55","date_gmt":"2026-06-13T03:29:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/parmaks.com\/Resources\/has-ai-already-killed-how-to-nonfiction-sales-trends-my-personal-data-and-what-it-might-mean-for-the-future\/"},"modified":"2026-06-12T23:29:55","modified_gmt":"2026-06-13T03:29:55","slug":"has-ai-already-killed-how-to-nonfiction-sales-trends-my-personal-data-and-what-it-might-mean-for-the-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/parmaks.com\/Resources\/has-ai-already-killed-how-to-nonfiction-sales-trends-my-personal-data-and-what-it-might-mean-for-the-future\/","title":{"rendered":"Has AI Already Killed How-To Nonfiction? Sales Trends, My Personal Data, and What It Might Mean for the Future"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Profit<\/a>
\n<\/p>\n

\n

My head has been spinning after getting a spreadsheet roughly a week ago.<\/p>\n

Before we dive into my dirty laundry, let\u2019s state the obvious: millions of people have a vague sense that AI is changing things. And LLMs sure are convenient for getting answers quickly. My team and I use Claude and other tools daily.<\/p>\n

But far fewer people have first-hand experience with the speed<\/strong> and intensity<\/strong> of disruption that\u2019s happening. Not in a year, not in six months, but right now.<\/p>\n

So let me show you, using my own books as the cadaver on the table, what a fatality looks like.<\/p>\n

First, some broader stats<\/strong><\/h3>\n

For the first three months of 2026, Publishers Weekly<\/em><\/a> reported that \u201cadult nonfiction\u201d was down 9% from Q1 2025. Who knows\u2026 maybe in line with historical fluctuations?<\/p>\n

But looking more closely, Self-help had the steepest subcategory decline, with units down 26.3% year-over-year.<\/strong> Only two of 16 subcategories\u2014crafts\/hobbies\/antiques\/games and religion\u2014grew at all (9.6% and 1.6%, respectively). The exceptions alone could make an interesting blog post for another time.\u00a0<\/p>\n

But, let\u2019s be honest: one quarter doesn\u2019t make a trend.<\/p>\n

So let\u2019s zoom out and look at my full catalog over a few years.<\/p>\n

My personal sales numbers<\/h3>\n

Below are the domestic print numbers (BookScan) for my five books<\/a>\u2014The 4-Hour Workweek<\/em>, The 4-Hour Body<\/em>, The 4-Hour Chef<\/em>, Tools of Titans<\/em>, and Tribe of Mentors<\/em>\u2014as a portfolio.<\/p>\n

Keep in mind that all of these were #1 NYT and\/or WSJ bestsellers, and The 4-Hour Workweek<\/em> was one of the most highlighted books across all of Amazon in 2017, a full decade after publication. The sales have been surprisingly durable\u2026 and predictable. These books have long been an annuity that I could count on.<\/p>\n

But alas! <\/p>\n

There\u2019s trouble in paradise:<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Year<\/strong><\/td>\nYear-Over-Year<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2022<\/td>\nbaseline<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2023<\/td>\n-5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2024<\/td>\n-13%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2025<\/td>\n-46%<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2026 (run-rate)<\/td>\n-57% vs. 2025<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n

Let that sink in for a minute.<\/p>\n

ChatGPT, powered by the updated GPT-3.5 model, launched on November 30, 2022.<\/p>\n

There was a gentle -5% slip in 2023, then -13% in 2024, and then the floor disappears: -46% in 2025, followed by an even steeper -57% pace this year.<\/strong> If the run-rate holds, my catalog will sell roughly 80% fewer print copies in 2026 than it did in 2022, with almost all of that happening since LLMs like Claude and ChatGPT exploded in use.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

But what about ebooks and audio?<\/p>\n

Looking at all formats (print + ebook + audio) for the catalog in 2025, the second half of the year was down ~45% versus the first half<\/strong>. <\/p>\n

Now, there are caveats, of course.<\/p>\n

We could talk about Amazon stocking changes, post-pandemic shifts of spending, a few potential exceptions, reversion to the mean after outlier events (e.g., TikTok virality of The 4-Hour Body<\/em> in 2024, thanks to Gary Brecka<\/a>), and so on.<\/p>\n

But, even if I try my best to steelman<\/a> a counter-argument\u2026 it\u2019s all fancy-talk and wishful thinking. I don\u2019t believe any constellation of footnotes begins to explain a near-vertical drop in prescriptive<\/em> nonfiction.<\/p>\n

Many of the strongest self-help franchises on the planet\u2014standout darlings with perennial dominance\u2014are also getting hammered. These are the<\/em> best performers. You see them on endcaps everywhere books are sold. But if you look at BookScan sales for 2025 vs 2026 thus far, and do a little math, it ain\u2019t pretty. If you rightly assume that self-help books tend to sell the most copies in H1, the biggest names I could think of will be down ~40-60%.<\/p>\n

My agent, who has decades of statements to compare against, put it bluntly: 2025 was the first big drop, 2026 looks more severe, and the only thing that\u2019s really changed in that timeframe is the acceleration of AI.<\/p>\n

Some publishers point to the growth of YouTube and podcasts, and those certainly contribute, but I think they are relative rounding errors.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s actually going on?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Think about what my books are, functionally speaking.<\/p>\n

On some level, The 4-Hour Body<\/em> is a lookup table. I have described a lot of my books as a Choose Your Own Adventure<\/em>-style menus: How do I lose fat? How do I fix my sleep? How do I quickly add 10 pounds of muscle? Similarly, The 4-Hour Workweek<\/em> is a decision tree for designing your lifestyle and automating your income.<\/p>\n

In 2019, the best interface to those answers was a book.<\/p>\n

In 2026, millions believe that the best interface is a free chatbot that has read<\/em> my books\u2014and thousands of others\u2014that will give you a personalized protocol in 15 seconds, adjusted for your bodyweight, your schedule, your injuries, and your aversion to cottage cheese.<\/p>\n

Now, can I share some compelling counter-arguments? Yes, and I will, but the trend is only going to accelerate and intensify. The broad trend will spare (next to) no one in the advice business.<\/p>\n

Is prescriptive nonfiction the canary in the coal mine?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

If \u201chow-to\u201d books are getting crushed because LLMs seem to provide faster, cheaper, and more personalized advice\u2026 What\u2019s next on the chopping block? Or, what is vulnerable to being replaced by AI-generated alternatives?<\/p>\n