{"id":1527,"date":"2023-03-08T16:03:51","date_gmt":"2023-03-08T20:03:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/parmaks.com\/Resources\/michael-mauboussin-how-great-investors-make-decisions-harnessing-the-wisdom-vs-madness-of-crowds-lessons-from-race-horses-and-more-659\/"},"modified":"2023-03-08T16:03:51","modified_gmt":"2023-03-08T20:03:51","slug":"michael-mauboussin-how-great-investors-make-decisions-harnessing-the-wisdom-vs-madness-of-crowds-lessons-from-race-horses-and-more-659","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/parmaks.com\/Resources\/michael-mauboussin-how-great-investors-make-decisions-harnessing-the-wisdom-vs-madness-of-crowds-lessons-from-race-horses-and-more-659\/","title":{"rendered":"Michael Mauboussin \u2014 How Great Investors Make Decisions, Harnessing The Wisdom (vs. Madness) of Crowds, Lessons from Race Horses, and More (#659)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <a href=\"https:\/\/hop.clickbank.net\/?affiliate=infohatch&amp;vendor=J1R2C\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-10614 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/parmaks.com\/Resources\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/profit-gen400px.png\" alt=\"Profit Gen\" width=\"400\" height=\"217\" srcset=\"https:\/\/parmaks.com\/Resources\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/profit-gen400px.png 400w, https:\/\/parmaks.com\/Resources\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/profit-gen400px-300x163.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 400px) 100vw, 400px\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"600\" height=\"480\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-66674 jetpack-lazy-image\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tim.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Michael-Mauboussin-Illustration-scaled.jpeg?resize=1024%2C819&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tim.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Michael-Mauboussin-Illustration-scaled.jpeg?resize=300%2C240&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tim.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Michael-Mauboussin-Illustration-scaled.jpeg?resize=768%2C614&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tim.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Michael-Mauboussin-Illustration-scaled.jpeg?resize=1536%2C1229&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tim.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Michael-Mauboussin-Illustration-scaled.jpeg?resize=2048%2C1638&amp;ssl=1 2048w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tim.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Michael-Mauboussin-Illustration-scaled.jpeg?w=1200&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tim.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Michael-Mauboussin-Illustration-scaled.jpeg?w=1800&amp;ssl=1 1800w\" data-lazy-sizes=\"(max-width: 767px) 90vw, 600px\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tim.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Michael-Mauboussin-Illustration.jpeg?resize=600%2C480&amp;is-pending-load=1#038;ssl=1\"\/><noscript><img loading=\"lazy\" data-lazy-fallback=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"600\" height=\"480\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tim.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Michael-Mauboussin-Illustration.jpeg?resize=600%2C480&amp;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-66674\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tim.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Michael-Mauboussin-Illustration-scaled.jpeg?resize=1024%2C819&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tim.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Michael-Mauboussin-Illustration-scaled.jpeg?resize=300%2C240&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tim.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Michael-Mauboussin-Illustration-scaled.jpeg?resize=768%2C614&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tim.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Michael-Mauboussin-Illustration-scaled.jpeg?resize=1536%2C1229&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tim.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Michael-Mauboussin-Illustration-scaled.jpeg?resize=2048%2C1638&amp;ssl=1 2048w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tim.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Michael-Mauboussin-Illustration-scaled.jpeg?w=1200&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tim.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Michael-Mauboussin-Illustration-scaled.jpeg?w=1800&amp;ssl=1 1800w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 767px) 90vw, 600px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\"\/><\/noscript><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Illustration via <a href=\"http:\/\/99designs.com\/tim\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener noreferrer\">99designs<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\">\n<p><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>\u201cWall Street, even to this day, is replete with lots of rules of thumb and sort of old wives\u2019 tales and shorthands for how to do things. And some of these things, when I would sit there and listen to them and try to cobble it all together, just didn\u2019t make sense. And so for me it was this idea of the beginner\u2019s mind and really saying, \u2018How does this stuff really work?&#8217;\u201d<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><cite>\u2014 Michael Mauboussin<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><strong>Michael Mauboussin<\/strong> (<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/mjmauboussin\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">@mjmauboussin<\/a>) is Head of Consilient Research on Counterpoint Global at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.<\/p>\n<p>Prior to joining Counterpoint Global, Michael was Director of Research at BlueMountain Capital, Head of Global Financial Strategies at Credit Suisse, and Chief Investment Strategist at Legg Mason Capital Management. Michael originally joined Credit Suisse in 1992 as a packaged food industry analyst and was named Chief U.S. Investment Strategist in 1999.<\/p>\n<p>Michael is the author of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Success-Equation-Untangling-Business-Investing-ebook\/dp\/B00A07FR4W\/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\"><em>The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing<\/em><\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Think-Twice-Harnessing-Power-Counterintuition-ebook\/dp\/B004OC07AI\/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\"><em>Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition<\/em><\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/More-Than-You-Know-Unconventional-ebook\/dp\/B0097D79OG\/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\"><em>More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places<\/em><\/a>. <em>More Than You Know<\/em> was named one of \u201cThe 100 Best Business Books of All Time\u201d by 800-CEO-READ, one of the best business books by <em>BusinessWeek<\/em> (2006), and best economics book by <em>Strategy+Business<\/em> (2006). Michael is also co-author, with Alfred Rappaport, of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Expectations-Investing-Reading-Returns-Heilbrunn-ebook\/dp\/B095FQSVMV\/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\"><em>Expectations Investing: Reading Stock Prices for Better Returns<\/em><\/a><em>.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Michael has been an adjunct professor of finance at Columbia Business School since 1993 and is on the faculty of the Heilbrunn Center for Graham and Dodd Investing. He received the Dean\u2019s Award for Teaching Excellence in 2009 and 2016 and the Graham &amp; Dodd, Murray, Greenwald Prize for Value Investing in 2021.<\/p>\n<p>Michael earned an A.B. from Georgetown University. He is chairman emeritus of the board of trustees of the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.santafe.edu\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Santa Fe Institute<\/a>, a leading center for multidisciplinary research in complex systems theory.<\/p>\n<p>Please enjoy!<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><strong><em><strong><em>Listen to the episode on <a href=\"https:\/\/podcasts.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/659-michael-mauboussin-how-great-investors-make-decisions\/id863897795?i=1000602650527\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Apple Podcasts<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/open.spotify.com\/episode\/3dXEbxgRQ0NKifv3HFmjSc?si=iKpcTDXHTf-JaIgnXXhJ_g\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener noreferrer\">Spotify<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/overcast.fm\/+Kebsk0Xmg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Overcast<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/podcastaddict.com\/podcast\/2031148#\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Podcast Addict<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/pca.st\/timferriss\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Pocket Casts<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/castbox.fm\/channel\/id1059468?country=us\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Castbox<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/podcasts.google.com\/?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly9yc3MuYXJ0MTkuY29tL3RpbS1mZXJyaXNzLXNob3c&amp;ved=0CAAQ4aUDahcKEwjI_ezXzuDnAhUAAAAAHQAAAAAQAQ\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Google Podcasts<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.stitcher.com\/show\/the-tim-ferriss-show\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Stitcher<\/a>, <strong><em><strong><em><a href=\"https:\/\/music.amazon.com\/podcasts\/9814f3cc-1dc5-4003-b816-44a8eb6bf666\/the-tim-ferriss-show\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Amazon Music<\/a>,\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/em><\/strong>or on your favorite podcast platform<\/em><\/strong>. <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><em><strong><em><strong><em><strong><em>Brought to you by\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/athleticgreens.com\/tim\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\"><strong><em>Athletic Greens\u2019s AG1<\/em><\/strong><\/a><strong><em>\u00a0all-in-one nutritional supplement,\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/em><\/strong><\/em><\/strong><\/em><\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.houseofmacadamias.com\/tim\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\"><strong><em>House of Macadamias<\/em><\/strong><\/a><strong><em>\u00a0delicious and nutritious nuts, and\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/shopify.com\/tim\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\"><strong><em>Shopify<\/em><\/strong><\/a><strong><em>\u00a0global commerce platform providing tools to start, grow, market, and manage a retail business.\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em>The transcript of this episode\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/tim.blog\/2023\/03\/03\/michael-mauboussin-transcript\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\">can be found here<\/a>. Transcripts of all episodes\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/tim.blog\/2018\/09\/20\/all-transcripts-from-the-tim-ferriss-show\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\">can be found here<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-tim-podcast-link-main podcast-block wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><a class=\"podcast-block__link\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow external\" href=\"https:\/\/podcasts.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/659-michael-mauboussin-how-great-investors-make-decisions\/id863897795?i=1000602650527\" data-wpel-link=\"external\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"podcast-block__link-icon jetpack-lazy-image\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tim.blog\/wp-content\/themes\/timferriss\/inc\/blocks\/podcast-link\/images\/apple-podcast.png?w=600&amp;is-pending-load=1#038;ssl=1\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tim.blog\/data:image\/gif;base64,https:\/\/tim.blog\/R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\"\/><noscript><img data-lazy-fallback=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tim.blog\/wp-content\/themes\/timferriss\/inc\/blocks\/podcast-link\/images\/apple-podcast.png?w=600&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"podcast-block__link-icon\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\"\/><\/noscript><span class=\"podcast-block__link-text-top\">Listen on<\/span><span class=\"podcast-block__link-text\">Apple Podcasts<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"wp-block-tim-podcast-link-main podcast-block wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><a class=\"podcast-block__link\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow external\" href=\"https:\/\/open.spotify.com\/episode\/3dXEbxgRQ0NKifv3HFmjSc?si=iKpcTDXHTf-JaIgnXXhJ_g\" data-wpel-link=\"external\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"podcast-block__link-icon jetpack-lazy-image\" src=\"https:\/\/tim.blog\/wp-content\/themes\/timferriss\/inc\/blocks\/podcast-link\/images\/spotify.svg?is-pending-load=1\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tim.blog\/data:image\/gif;base64,https:\/\/tim.blog\/R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\"\/><noscript><img data-lazy-fallback=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/tim.blog\/wp-content\/themes\/timferriss\/inc\/blocks\/podcast-link\/images\/spotify.svg\" class=\"podcast-block__link-icon\"\/><\/noscript><span class=\"podcast-block__link-text-top\">Listen on<\/span><span class=\"podcast-block__link-text\">Spotify<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"wp-block-tim-podcast-link-main podcast-block wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><a class=\"podcast-block__link\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow external\" href=\"https:\/\/overcast.fm\/+Kebsk0Xmg\" data-wpel-link=\"external\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"podcast-block__link-icon jetpack-lazy-image\" src=\"https:\/\/tim.blog\/wp-content\/themes\/timferriss\/inc\/blocks\/podcast-link\/images\/overcast.svg?is-pending-load=1\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tim.blog\/data:image\/gif;base64,https:\/\/tim.blog\/R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\"\/><noscript><img data-lazy-fallback=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/tim.blog\/wp-content\/themes\/timferriss\/inc\/blocks\/podcast-link\/images\/overcast.svg\" class=\"podcast-block__link-icon\"\/><\/noscript><span class=\"podcast-block__link-text-top\">Listen on<\/span><span class=\"podcast-block__link-text\">Overcast<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"podcast-player\">\n<div class=\"podcast-player-inner-wrap\">\n<p>#659: Michael Mauboussin \u2014 How Great Investors Make Decisions, Harnessing The Wisdom (vs. Madness) of Crowds, Lessons from Race Horses, and More<\/p>\n<p><noscript><iframe src=\"https:\/\/www.art19.com\/shows\/58dacbdc-646e-4585-9914-19c3de11d1ba\/episodes\/c5028acd-ab32-4f3d-9801-2c612c3931c8\/embed?type=micro\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 30px; border: 0 none;\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/noscript><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n<p><strong>This episode is brought to you by\u00a0<\/strong><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" href=\"https:\/\/www.athleticgreens.com\/tim\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\"><strong>Athletic Greens<\/strong><\/a><strong>.<\/strong>\u00a0I get asked all the time, \u201cIf you could use only one supplement, what would it be?\u201d My answer is usually\u00a0<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" href=\"https:\/\/www.athleticgreens.com\/tim\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">AG1<\/a> by <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" href=\"https:\/\/www.athleticgreens.com\/tim\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Athletic\u00a0Greens<\/a>, my all-in-one nutritional insurance. I recommended it in\u00a0<em>The 4-Hour Body<\/em>\u00a0in 2010 and did not get paid to do so. I do my best with nutrient-dense meals, of course, but\u00a0<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" href=\"https:\/\/www.athleticgreens.com\/tim\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">AG<\/a>\u00a0further covers my bases with vitamins, minerals, and whole-food-sourced micronutrients that support gut health and the immune system.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><strong>Right now,\u00a0<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.athleticgreens.com\/tim\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\"><strong>Athletic Greens<\/strong><\/a><strong>\u00a0is offering you their Vitamin D Liquid Formula free with your first subscription purchase<\/strong>\u2014a vital nutrient for a strong immune system and strong bones.\u00a0<strong>Visit\u00a0<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.athleticgreens.com\/tim\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\"><strong>AthleticGreens.com\/Tim<\/strong><\/a><strong>\u00a0to claim this special offer today and receive the free Vitamin D Liquid Formula (and 5 free travel packs) with your first subscription purchase!\u00a0<\/strong>That\u2019s up to a one-year supply of Vitamin D as added value when you try their delicious and comprehensive all-in-one daily greens product.<\/p>\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n<p><strong>This episode is brought to you by\u00a0<\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/shopify.com\/tim\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\"><strong>Shopify<\/strong><\/a><strong>!\u00a0<\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/shopify.com\/tim\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Shopify<\/a>\u00a0is one of my favorite platforms and one of my favorite companies.\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/shopify.com\/tim\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Shopify<\/a>\u00a0is<strong> designed for anyone to sell anywhere<\/strong>, giving entrepreneurs the resources once reserved for big business. In no time flat, you can have a great-looking online store that brings your ideas to life, and you can have the tools to manage your day-to-day and drive sales. No coding or design experience required.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Go to\u00a0<\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/shopify.com\/tim\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\"><strong>shopify.com\/Tim<\/strong><\/a><strong>\u00a0to sign up for a one-dollar-per-month trial period. It\u2019s a great deal for a great service, so I encourage you to check it out. Take your business to the next level today by visiting\u00a0<\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/shopify.com\/tim\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\"><strong>shopify.com\/Tim<\/strong><\/a><strong>.<\/strong><\/p>\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n<p><strong>This episode is brought to you by\u00a0<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.houseofmacadamias.com\/tim\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\"><strong>House of Macadamias<\/strong><\/a><strong>\u00a0delicious and nutritious nuts!\u00a0<\/strong>I love macadamia nuts and have been enjoying them often since keto expert Dr. Dominic D\u2019Agostino recommended them on the podcast in 2015. They taste great, and with more healthy, monounsaturated fat than both olive oil and avocados, 27% fewer carbs than almonds, and more than 50% fewer carbs than cashews, they\u2019re the perfect low-carb, keto-friendly, nutty snack. In fact, I just ate a handful of lightly white-chocolate-covered macadamias about an hour ago to keep me going through the afternoon until dinner. And I will say this: \u200b<a href=\"https:\/\/www.houseofmacadamias.com\/tim\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\"><strong>House of Macadamias<\/strong><\/a><strong>\u00a0produces the best-tasting macadamia nuts I\u2019ve ever eaten\u2026 by far.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><strong>Listeners of\u00a0<em>The Tim Ferriss Show<\/em>\u00a0can use code TIM20 to\u00a0<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.houseofmacadamias.com\/tim\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\"><strong>get 20% off all orders<\/strong><\/a><strong>, plus, for a limited time, a free, premium, extra-virgin, cold-pressed macadamia oil with any order, valued at $20.\u00a0Visit\u00a0<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.houseofmacadamias.com\/tim\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\"><strong>HouseOfMacadamias.com\/Tim<\/strong><\/a><strong>\u00a0to discover some of the most delicious and nutritious nuts on the planet.<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n<p><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>Want to hear <a href=\"https:\/\/tim.blog\/2023\/01\/25\/bill-gurley\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\">another episode<\/a> with an investor of cutting-edge insight?<\/strong> <\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>Listen to my conversation with Benchmark\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/tim.blog\/2023\/01\/25\/bill-gurley\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\">Bill Gurley<\/a>, in which we discussed sell-side analysts versus buy-side analysts, financial models, repurposing good ideas for alternative applications, the conviction of network effects, undervalued competitive advantages, cultivating anti-tribalism, America\u2019s future, <a href=\"https:\/\/tim.blog\/2023\/01\/25\/bill-gurley\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\">and much more<\/a>.<\/p>\n<div class=\"podcast-player\">\n<div class=\"podcast-player-inner-wrap\">\n<p>#651: Legendary Investor Bill Gurley on Investing Rules, Finding Outliers, Insights from Jeff Bezos and Howard Marks, Must-Read Books, Creating True Competitive Advantages, Open-Source Strategies, Adapting Mental Models to New Realities, and More<\/p>\n<p><noscript><iframe src=\"https:\/\/www.art19.com\/shows\/58dacbdc-646e-4585-9914-19c3de11d1ba\/episodes\/b40d5b98-f215-42fc-8b67-446d540ff94c\/embed?type=micro\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 30px; border: 0 none;\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/noscript><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><strong>What was your favorite quote or lesson from this episode? Please let me know <a href=\"https:\/\/tim.blog\/2023\/03\/03\/michael-mauboussin\/#respond\">in the comments<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>SCROLL BELOW FOR LINKS AND SHOW NOTES\u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span id=\"more-66668\"\/><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">SELECTED LINKS FROM THE EPISODE<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>Connect with <strong>Michael Mauboussin<\/strong>:<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.michaelmauboussin.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Website<\/a> | <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/mjmauboussin\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Twitter<\/a><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Success-Equation-Untangling-Business-Investing-ebook\/dp\/B00A07FR4W\/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing by Michael Mauboussin | Amazon<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Think-Twice-Harnessing-Power-Counterintuition-ebook\/dp\/B004OC07AI\/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition by Michael Mauboussin | Amazon<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/More-Than-You-Know-Unconventional-ebook\/dp\/B0097D79OG\/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places by Michael Mauboussin | Amazon<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Expectations-Investing-Reading-Returns-Heilbrunn\/dp\/0231203047\/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Expectations Investing: Reading Stock Prices for Better Returns by Michael Mauboussin and Alfred Rappaport | Amazon<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.santafe.edu\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Santa Fe Institute<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/royalsociety.org\/about-us\/history\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">History of the Royal Society | Royal Society<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Creating-Shareholder-Value-Managers-Investors\/dp\/0684844109\/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Creating Shareholder Value: A Guide for Managers and Investors by Alfred Rappaport | Amazon<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/fs.blog\/michael-mauboussin-interview-no-4\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Michael Mauboussin, Interview No. 4 | Farnam Street Blog<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Drexel_Burnham_Lambert\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Drexel Burnham Lambert | Wikipedia<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/1983\/07\/18\/business\/stokely-approves-quaker-bid.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Stokely Approves Quaker Bid | The New York Times<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.gatorade.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Sports Science to Fuel Athletes | Gatorade<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Consilience-Knowledge-Edward-Osborne-Wilson\/dp\/067976867X\/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Consilience: The Unity of Knowledge by E.O. Wilson | Amazon<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.morganstanley.com\/im\/en-us\/financial-advisor\/insights\/series\/consilient-observer.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Consilient Observer | Morgan Stanley<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/interestingengineering.com\/innovation\/who-actually-invented-the-wheeled-suitcase\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Who Actually Invented the Wheeled Suitcase? | Interesting Engineering<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/WALL-4K-UHD-Ben-Burtt\/dp\/B0094KTBBG\/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">WALL-E | Prime Video<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Complex_adaptive_system\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Complex Adaptive System | Wikipedia<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/hbr.org\/2011\/09\/embracing-complexity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Embracing Complexity | Harvard Business Review<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Wisdom-Crowds-James-Surowiecki\/dp\/0385721706\/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=The+Wisdom+of+Crowds&amp;qid=1677808096&amp;s=books&amp;sr=1-1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">The Wisdom of Crowds by James Surowiecki | Amazon<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/hbr.org\/2017\/03\/teams-solve-problems-faster-when-theyre-more-cognitively-diverse\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Teams Solve Problems Faster When They\u2019re More Cognitively Diverse | Harvard Business Review<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Difference-Diversity-Creates-Schools-Societies\/dp\/0691138540\/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and Societies by Scott E. Page | Amazon<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Diversity-Bonus-Knowledge-Compelling-Interests\/dp\/0691191530\/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">The Diversity Bonus: How Great Teams Pay Off in the Knowledge Economy by Scott Page | Amazon<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=fCvUi2v05AA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Michael Mauboussin 20th Year Tribute Video | Andrew Mauboussin<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/how-to-unleash-the-wisdom-of-crowds-52774\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">How to Unleash the Wisdom of Crowds | The Conversation<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.jstor.org\/stable\/4479031\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Market Efficiency and the Bean Jar Experiment | Financial Analysts Journal<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.verywellmind.com\/the-asch-conformity-experiments-2794996\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">The Asch Conformity Experiments | Verywell Mind<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/research-doc.credit-suisse.com\/docView?language=ENG&amp;format=PDF&amp;source_id=csplusresearchcp&amp;document_id=1027591531&amp;serialid=8ih05UWz6OEcevTXz7BW7uFl880Dor5y5Ndvmm47edY%3D&amp;cspId=null\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">How to Manage a Team to Make Good Decisions | Credit Suisse<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2006\/03\/11\/business\/the-future-divined-by-the-crowd.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">The Future Divined by the Crowd | The New York Times<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/swlh\/how-a-guessing-game-can-make-you-a-better-leader-63e80e09b821\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">How a Guessing Game Can Make You a Better Leader by Jake Wilder | The Startup<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.researchgate.net\/publication\/274992096_Forecasting_Tournaments_Tools_for_Increasing_Transparency_and_Improving_the_Quality_of_Debate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Forecasting Tournaments: Tools for Increasing Transparency and Improving the Quality of Debate | Current Directions in Psychological Science<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Against-Gods-Remarkable-Story-Risk\/dp\/0471295639\/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk by Peter L. Bernstein | Amazon<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Capital-Ideas-Improbable-Origins-Modern\/dp\/0471731749\/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Capital Ideas: The Improbable Origins of Modern Wall Street by Peter L. Bernstein | Amazon<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Bionomics-Economy-as-Business-Ecosystem\/dp\/1587982196\/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Bionomics: Economy as Business Ecosystem by Michael Rothschild | Amazon<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/More-Heat-than-Light-Perspectives\/dp\/0521426898\/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">More Heat than Light: Economics as Social Physics, Physics as Nature\u2019s Economics by Philip Mirowski | Amazon<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Complexity-Emerging-Science-Order-Chaos-ebook\/dp\/B07WVV5J2R\/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Order and Chaos by M. Mitchell Waldrop | Amazon<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Economy-Evolving-Complex-System-Institute\/dp\/0201156857\/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">The Economy As An Evolving Complex System: The Proceedings of the Evolutionary Paths of the Global Economy Workshop, Held September, 1987 in Santa Fe, New Mexico by Philip W. Anderson | Amazon<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/v\/valueinvesting.asp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Value Investing | Investopedia<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investlikethebest.libsyn.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Invest Like the Best with Patrick O\u2019Shaughnessy<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/ask\/answers\/difference-between-publicly-and-privately-held-companies\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Private vs. Public Company: What\u2019s the Difference? | Investopedia<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/b\/buyout.asp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">What Is a Buyout? | Investopedia<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/v\/venturecapital.asp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Venture Capital | Investopedia<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/articles\/stocks\/09\/how-interest-rates-affect-markets.asp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">How Interest Rates Affect the US Markets | Investopedia<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Base_rate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Base Rate | Wikipedia<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mckinsey.com\/capabilities\/strategy-and-corporate-finance\/our-insights\/daniel-kahneman-beware-the-inside-view\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Daniel Kahneman: Beware the \u2018Inside View\u2019 | McKinsey<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/research-doc.credit-suisse.com\/docView?language=ENG&amp;format=PDF&amp;source_id=csplusresearchcp&amp;document_id=1049299561&amp;serialid=wOXkPLfHqEiMx5kS20DcTBtwUrnFpUakb63KgkeUgQ8%3D&amp;cspId=null\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Triple Crown Teachings | Credit Suisse<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.emeraldgrouppublishing.com\/archived\/learning\/management_thinking\/interviews\/mauboussin.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Think Twice: An Interview with Michael J. Mauboussin | Emerald Publishing<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Behave-Biology-Humans-Best-Worst\/dp\/009957506X\/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Behave: The Biology of Humans at Our Best and Worst by Robert M. Sapolsky | Amazon<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Why-Zebras-Dont-Ulcers-Third\/dp\/0805073698\/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Why Zebras Don\u2019t Get Ulcers: The Acclaimed Guide to Stress, Stress-Related Diseases, and Coping by Robert M. Sapolsky | Amazon<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/articles\/economics\/09\/financial-crisis-review.asp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">The 2007\u20132008 Financial Crisis in Review | Investopedia<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Moneyball-Art-Winning-Unfair-Game\/dp\/0393324818\/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game by Michael Lewis | Amazon<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/hbr.org\/2007\/09\/performing-a-project-premortem\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Performing a Project Pre-Mortem | Harvard Business Review<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Virtual-History-Counterfactuals-Niall-Ferguson\/dp\/0241952255\/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Virtual History: Alternatives and Counterfactuals by Niall Ferguson | Amazon<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/thedecisionlab.com\/biases\/hindsight-bias\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Hindsight Bias | The Decision Lab<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thespacereview.com\/article\/9\/1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">The Dangers of \u201cCreeping Determinism\u201d | The Space Review<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.chasejarvis.com\/blog\/skill-stacking-how-to-combine-your-talents-for-greater-success-with-david-epstein\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Skill Stacking: How to Combine Your Talents for Greater Success with David Epstein | Chase Jarvis Photography<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/psychclassics.yorku.ca\/Cronbach\/construct.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Construct Validity in Psychological Tests by Cronbach &amp; Meehl (1955) | Classics in the History of Psychology<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Expert-Political-Judgment-Good-Know\/dp\/0691175977\/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? by Philip E. Tetlock | Amazon<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/fs.blog\/the-expert-squeeze\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">The Wisdom of Crowds and The Expert Squeeze | Farnam Street Blog<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/naturalisticdecisionmaking.org\/ndm-principles\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Principles of Naturalistic Decision Making | Naturalistic Decision Making Association<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/p\/prospecttheory.asp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Prospect Theory | Investopedia<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.researchgate.net\/publication\/26798603_Conditions_for_Intuitive_Expertise_A_Failure_to_Disagree\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Conditions for Intuitive Expertise: A Failure to Disagree | American Psychologist<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/thedecisionlab.com\/reference-guide\/philosophy\/system-1-and-system-2-thinking\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">System 1 and System 2 Thinking | The Decision Lab<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Art-Learning-Journey-Optimal-Performance\/dp\/0743277465\/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">The Art of Learning: An Inner Journey to Optimal Performance by Josh Waitzkin | Amazon<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/billwall.phpwebhosting.com\/articles\/chunking.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Chunking Theory in Chess | Bill Wall<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Draft-No-4-Writing-Process\/dp\/0374537976\/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Draft No. 4: On the Writing Process by John McPhee | Amazon<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/tim.blog\/2023\/02\/08\/dr-matthew-walker\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\">Dr. Matthew Walker, All Things Sleep Continued \u2014 The Hidden Dangers of Melatonin, Tools for Insomnia, Enhancing Learning and Sleep Spindles, The Upsides of Sleep Divorce, How Sleep Impacts Sex (and Vice Versa), Adventures in Lucid Dreaming, The One Clock to Rule Them All, The IP Addresses of Your Memories, and More | The Tim Ferriss Show #654<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.hbo.com\/game-of-thrones\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Game of Thrones | HBO<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Nurture-Assumption-Children-Revised-Updated\/dp\/1439101655\/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">The Nurture Assumption: Why Children Turn Out the Way They Do by Judith Rich Harris | Amazon<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/No-Two-Alike-Nature-Individuality\/dp\/0393329712\/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">No Two Alike: Human Nature and Human Individuality by Judith Rich Harris | Amazon<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Parent-Effectiveness-Training-Responsible-Children\/dp\/0609806939\/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Parent Effectiveness Training: The Proven Program for Raising Responsible Children by Thomas Gordon | Amazon<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Free-Range-Kids-Parents-Teachers-Grow\/dp\/1119782147\/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Free-Range Kids: How Parents and Teachers Can Let Go and Let Grow by Lenore Skenazy | Amazon<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/reason.com\/2021\/06\/11\/free-range-kids-second-edition-childhood-independence\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">12 Years After Free-Range Kids, How Has Childhood Changed? | Reason<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nps.gov\/yell\/index.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Yellowstone National Park | US National Park Service<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Complexity-Guided-Tour-Melanie-Mitchell\/dp\/0199798109\/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Complexity: A Guided Tour by Melanie Mitchell | Amazon<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-Philip-Tetlock\/dp\/0804136718\/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner | Amazon<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Psychology-Intelligence-Analysis-Richards-Heuer\/dp\/1684224128\/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Psychology of Intelligence Analysis by Richards J. Heuer | Amazon<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cia.gov\/static\/9a5f1162fd0932c29bfed1c030edf4ae\/Pyschology-of-Intelligence-Analysis.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Psychology of Intelligence Analysis by Richards J. Heuer (PDF) | CIA<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Incerto-Fooled-Randomness-Procrustes-Antifragile\/dp\/059324365X\/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Incerto: Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, Antifragile, Skin in the Game by Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Amazon<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.expectationsinvesting.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Expectations Investing<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">SHOW NOTES<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>[07:12] Latin roots.<\/li>\n<li>[09:14] No business education? No problem!<\/li>\n<li>[12:15] The best food industry analyst.<\/li>\n<li>[15:36] Consilience.<\/li>\n<li>[19:58] Complex adaptive systems.<\/li>\n<li>[23:26] Diversity.<\/li>\n<li>[26:23] The wisdom of crowds.<\/li>\n<li>[32:42] The minimum effective dose of cognitive diversity.<\/li>\n<li>[36:02] Designing experiments.<\/li>\n<li>[43:49] <em>Against the Gods<\/em> and <em>Complexity<\/em>.<\/li>\n<li>[49:56] Value investing and the Santa Fe Institute.<\/li>\n<li>[53:57] A brief 21st-century asset class tour.<\/li>\n<li>[57:47] Base rates and horses.<\/li>\n<li>[1:06:16] Good vs. great investors.<\/li>\n<li>[1:13:22] Expanding options when making decisions.<\/li>\n<li>[1:18:56] Favorite failures.<\/li>\n<li>[1:20:35] Counteracting overreliance on experts.<\/li>\n<li>[1:24:34] Intuition.<\/li>\n<li>[1:34:15] Time management tenets.<\/li>\n<li>[1:40:59] Parental resources.<\/li>\n<li>[1:43:42] Perspectives gained by learning about complex adaptive systems.<\/li>\n<li>[1:46:12] Recommended reading.<\/li>\n<li>[1:47:32] Michael\u2019s billboard.<\/li>\n<li>[1:50:33] Parting thoughts.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">MORE MICHAEL MAUBOUSSIN QUOTES FROM THE INTERVIEW<\/h3>\n<p><strong>\u201cWall Street, even to this day, is replete with lots of rules of thumb and sort of old wives\u2019 tales and shorthands for how to do things. And some of these things, when I would sit there and listen to them and try to cobble it all together, just didn\u2019t make sense. And so for me it was this idea of the beginner\u2019s mind and really saying, \u2018How does this stuff really work?&#8217;\u201d<\/strong><br \/>\u2014\u00a0Michael Mauboussin<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u201cHow do I parse what I think would lend itself to where pattern recognition will be effective versus where it\u2019s unlikely to be effective?\u201d<\/strong><br \/>\u2014\u00a0Michael Mauboussin<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u201cAs I always like to say in organizations, \u2018What\u2019s bad about young people is they don\u2019t know anything. And what\u2019s good about young people is they don\u2019t know anything.&#8217;\u201d<\/strong><br \/>\u2014\u00a0Michael Mauboussin<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">PEOPLE MENTIONED<\/h3>\n<p><h3 class=\"jp-relatedposts-headline\"><em>Related and Recommended<\/em><\/h3>\n<\/p>\n<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/tim.blog\/podcast\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><strong>The Tim Ferriss Show<\/strong><\/a> <\/em><span>is one <\/span>of the most popular podcasts in the world with more than 900 million downloads. It has been selected for &#8220;Best of Apple Podcasts&#8221; three times, it is often the #1 interview podcast across all of Apple Podcasts, and it&#8217;s been ranked #1 out of 400,000+ podcasts on many occasions. To listen to any of the past episodes for free, check out <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/tim.blog\/podcast\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\">this page<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/hop.clickbank.net\/?affiliate=infohatch&amp;vendor=J1R2C\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-10614 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/parmaks.com\/Resources\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/profit-gen400px.png\" alt=\"Profit Gen\" width=\"400\" height=\"217\" srcset=\"https:\/\/parmaks.com\/Resources\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/profit-gen400px.png 400w, https:\/\/parmaks.com\/Resources\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/profit-gen400px-300x163.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 400px) 100vw, 400px\" \/><\/a><br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Illustration via 99designs \u201cWall Street, even to this day, is replete with lots of rules of thumb and sort of old wives\u2019 tales and shorthands [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1528,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1527","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-growth"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/parmaks.com\/Resources\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1527","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/parmaks.com\/Resources\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/parmaks.com\/Resources\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/parmaks.com\/Resources\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/parmaks.com\/Resources\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1527"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/parmaks.com\/Resources\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1527\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/parmaks.com\/Resources\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1528"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/parmaks.com\/Resources\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1527"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/parmaks.com\/Resources\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1527"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/parmaks.com\/Resources\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1527"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}