{"id":7725,"date":"2024-06-04T03:28:11","date_gmt":"2024-06-04T07:28:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/parmaks.com\/Resources\/bullish-reversal-supported-by-10-year-t-note-futures\/"},"modified":"2024-06-04T03:28:11","modified_gmt":"2024-06-04T07:28:11","slug":"bullish-reversal-supported-by-10-year-t-note-futures","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/parmaks.com\/Resources\/bullish-reversal-supported-by-10-year-t-note-futures\/","title":{"rendered":"Bullish Reversal Supported by 10-Year T-Note Futures"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <a href=\"https:\/\/hop.clickbank.net\/?affiliate=infohatch&amp;vendor=J1R2C\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-10614 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/parmaks.com\/Resources\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/profit-gen400px.png\" alt=\"Profit Gen\" width=\"400\" height=\"217\" srcset=\"https:\/\/parmaks.com\/Resources\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/profit-gen400px.png 400w, https:\/\/parmaks.com\/Resources\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/profit-gen400px-300x163.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 400px) 100vw, 400px\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<h2>Major Influence of 10-Year US Treasury Yield<\/h2>\n<p>The <em><strong>10-year US Treasury yield<\/strong><\/em> has become a key factor in dictating the short to medium-term movements of major US stock indices. On May 31, key intraday bullish reversals in the<strong> S&amp;P 500<\/strong>, <strong>Nasdaq 100<\/strong>, and <strong>Dow Jones<\/strong> were driven by an earlier rally in the <em><strong>10-year Treasury Note futures<\/strong><\/em> that began in the European session.<\/p>\n<p>Watch the key short-term support level of <em><strong>18,340 <\/strong><\/em>on the<em> Nasdaq 100<\/em>. <em>The Nasdaq 100<\/em> reached a fresh intraday all-time high of <em><strong>18,907<\/strong> <\/em>on May 23, boosted by Nvidia\u2019s strong Q1 earnings and optimistic Q2 revenue guidance.<\/p>\n<h2>Impact of Momentum and Earnings on Market Trends<\/h2>\n<p>While firm-based earnings are significant, the macro factor has now taken the lead since May 24. This can be understood by examining the movements of the <em>10-year US Treasury yield<\/em> and major US stock indices. From May 24 to May 29, the <em>10-year Treasury yield<\/em> rose by <em><strong>15 basis points<\/strong><\/em> to a four-week high of <em><strong>4.62%<\/strong><\/em>. During the same period, major US stock indices declined: <em><strong>S&amp;P 500 (-1.31%)<\/strong><\/em>, <em><strong>Nasdaq 100 (-1.43%)<\/strong><\/em>, and <em><strong>Dow Jones (-2.45%)<\/strong><\/em>.<\/p>\n<h2>Why Higher US Treasury Yields Affect Stocks<\/h2>\n<figure id=\"attachment_149735\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-149735\" style=\"width: 640px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-1.jpg\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-149735 size-full\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"380\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-1.jpg 640w, https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-1-400x238.jpg 400w, https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-1-40x24.jpg 40w, https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-1-55x33.jpg 55w, https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-1-100x59.jpg 100w\" data-lazy-sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" src=\"https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-1.jpg\"\/><noscript><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-149735 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"380\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-1.jpg 640w, https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-1-400x238.jpg 400w, https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-1-40x24.jpg 40w, https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-1-55x33.jpg 55w, https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-1-100x59.jpg 100w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\"\/><\/noscript><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-149735\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Fig 1: 10-year US Treasury Note futures correlation with S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 &amp; DJIA as of Jun 3, 2024 Source: ActionForex<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Last Friday\u2019s key bullish reversal in US stock indices was led by <em><strong>10-year US Treasury Note futures<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Higher US Treasury yields can negatively impact US stock indices. A rise in longer-term US Treasury yields, especially above the <em><strong>5% resistance level<\/strong><\/em>, can trigger risk-off behavior among market participants. This leads to higher borrowing costs for consumers and corporations, potentially reducing profit margins and the number of earnings upgrades from analysts.<\/p>\n<p>Additionally, the <em><strong>S&amp;P 500\u2019s current 12-month<\/strong> forward <strong>P\/E ratio of 20.3<\/strong><\/em>, above its <em><strong>10-year average of 17.8<\/strong><\/em>, might be hard to sustain if the<em> 10-year yield<\/em> continues to rise. A shrinking equity risk premium, comparing the <em>S&amp;P 500 earnings yield <\/em>against <em>the 10-year yield<\/em>, could make US equities less attractive compared to Treasury bonds.<\/p>\n<h2>Intraday Bullish Reversals and Positive Momentum<\/h2>\n<figure id=\"attachment_149734\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-149734\" style=\"width: 640px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-2.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-149734 size-full\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"380\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-2.png 640w, https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-2-400x238.png 400w, https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-2-40x24.png 40w, https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-2-55x33.png 55w, https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-2-100x59.png 100w\" data-lazy-sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" src=\"https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-2.png\"\/><noscript><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-149734 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"380\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-2.png 640w, https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-2-400x238.png 400w, https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-2-40x24.png 40w, https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-2-55x33.png 55w, https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-2-100x59.png 100w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\"\/><\/noscript><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-149734\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Fig 2: 10-year US Treasury notes futures medium-term trends as of Jun 3, 2024 Source: ActionForex<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>On May 31, major US stock indices erased intraday losses and rallied strongly into the close, with gains recorded in the <em>S&amp;P 500<\/em> <em><strong>(+0.80%)<\/strong><\/em> and <em>Dow Jones<\/em> <em><strong>(+1.51%)<\/strong><\/em>, while the <em>Nasdaq 100<\/em> recovered from an earlier loss. These bullish moves were led by a reversal in the <em><strong>10-year US Treasury Note <\/strong><strong>futures<\/strong><\/em>, which saw a rise in price due to a reduction in the <em>10-year yield<\/em> (see Fig 1).<\/p>\n<h2>Analyzing Momentum in 10-Year Treasury Note Futures<\/h2>\n<p>The <em><strong>10-year US Treasury Note futures\u2019 movement<\/strong><\/em> is crucial due to its direct correlation with major US stock indices. The daily RSI momentum indicator for the futures shows <em><strong>\u201chigher lows\u201d<\/strong><\/em> and has not reached the overbought region, suggesting potential bullish momentum (see Fig 2).<\/p>\n<p>If the medium-term support at <em><strong>107-23 holds,<\/strong><\/em> the next resistance levels are at <em><strong>110.12 (200-day moving average)<\/strong> <\/em>and <em><strong>111-08<\/strong><\/em> (descending trendline since Dec 27, 2023).<\/p>\n<h2>Nasdaq 100 Rebounds Above Key Average<\/h2>\n<figure id=\"attachment_149733\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-149733\" style=\"width: 640px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-3.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-149733 size-full\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"380\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-3.png 640w, https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-3-400x238.png 400w, https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-3-40x24.png 40w, https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-3-55x33.png 55w, https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-3-100x59.png 100w\" data-lazy-sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" src=\"https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-3.png\"\/><noscript><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-149733 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"380\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-3.png 640w, https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-3-400x238.png 400w, https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-3-40x24.png 40w, https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-3-55x33.png 55w, https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-3-100x59.png 100w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\"\/><\/noscript><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-149733\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Fig 3: Nasdaq 100 major and medium-term trends as of Jun 3, 2024 Source: ActionForex<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure id=\"attachment_149732\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-149732\" style=\"width: 640px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-4.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-149732 size-full\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"380\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-4.png 640w, https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-4-400x238.png 400w, https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-4-40x24.png 40w, https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-4-55x33.png 55w, https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-4-100x59.png 100w\" data-lazy-sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" src=\"https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-4.png\"\/><noscript><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-149732 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"380\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-4.png 640w, https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-4-400x238.png 400w, https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-4-40x24.png 40w, https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-4-55x33.png 55w, https:\/\/www.dumblittleman.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/analysis-4-100x59.png 100w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\"\/><\/noscript><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-149732\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Fig 4: Nasdaq 100 short-term trend as of Jun 3, 2024 Source: ActionForex<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The Nasdaq 100 managed to trade above the <em><strong>20-day moving average<\/strong><\/em> on May 31, forming a bullish <em><strong>\u201cDragonfly Doji\u201d<\/strong><\/em> candlestick pattern, indicating a potential revival of its bullish trend since April 18, 2024 (see Fig 3).<\/p>\n<h2>Key Levels to Watch on Nasdaq 100<\/h2>\n<p>Monitor the<em><strong> 18,340 short-term pivotal support<\/strong><\/em>. A move above the <em><strong>18,830<\/strong><\/em> resistance could target intermediate resistances at <em><strong>18,990\/19,055<\/strong><\/em> and<em><strong> 19,160\/19,180<\/strong><\/em> (see Fig 4).<\/p>\n<p>On the downside, failure to hold at <em><strong>18,340<\/strong><\/em> may lead to a decline towards <em><strong>18,100 (50-day moving average)<\/strong><\/em> and further to <em><strong>17,810<\/strong><\/em> as the key medium-term support.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/hop.clickbank.net\/?affiliate=infohatch&amp;vendor=J1R2C\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-10614 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/parmaks.com\/Resources\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/profit-gen400px.png\" alt=\"Profit Gen\" width=\"400\" height=\"217\" srcset=\"https:\/\/parmaks.com\/Resources\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/profit-gen400px.png 400w, https:\/\/parmaks.com\/Resources\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/profit-gen400px-300x163.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 400px) 100vw, 400px\" \/><\/a><br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Major Influence of 10-Year US Treasury Yield The 10-year US Treasury yield has become a key factor in dictating the short to medium-term movements of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7726,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7725","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-happiness"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/parmaks.com\/Resources\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7725","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/parmaks.com\/Resources\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/parmaks.com\/Resources\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/parmaks.com\/Resources\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/parmaks.com\/Resources\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7725"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/parmaks.com\/Resources\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7725\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/parmaks.com\/Resources\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7726"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/parmaks.com\/Resources\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7725"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/parmaks.com\/Resources\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7725"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/parmaks.com\/Resources\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7725"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}